“Operation Roaring Lion,” the war against Iran and its proxies, has not yet reached its conclusion. Although the final outcome remains unclear and the current situation may soon shift, the campaign’s distinctive characteristics allow for an interim assessment. This is the most extensive war fought in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War, and the first in which Israel is fighting as an active partner in a coalition with the United States. While its global implications have yet to fully emerge, it is already clear that the war carries significant implications for the Gulf States, the global energy market, Israel’s international standing, and great-power competition.

Despite the prevailing perception that China retreated from the Middle East in 2025 amid the renewed strengthening of the United States in the region and the absence of significant Chinese involvement in the Israel-Iran war, the reality is more complex. A multi-dimensional analysis of trade, investment, technology, as well as security and diplomatic ties, shows that not only has China not retreated from the Middle East, but it has continued to consolidate and deepen its economic foothold there, maintaining a consistent pattern of conduct: avoiding security commitments while expanding economic influence. The round of confrontation between Israel, the United States, and Iran in early 2026 highlights this trend: China remains a marginal actor in the military arena, yet acts cautiously to leverage the crisis in order to accumulate long-term influence. The central question that remains open is whether and how China will be involved in Iran’s post-war reconstruction—particularly in the rehabilitation of its military capabilities and defense industry. This issue is not merely theoretical. It requires Israel to act in the international sphere alongside regional partners that have also been targeted by Iran, and influence China to refrain from such involvement, particularly with regard to rebuilding Iran’s military capabilities. Furthermore, Israel must prepare for the intensification of great power competition in the Middle East, potentially in a different and more acute form than that seen over the past decade.

What lessons can be drawn from the local elections held in Judea and Samaria and Gaza, looking toward future general elections?

The Jewish community of the United States is a valuable national security asset of the State of Israel. Over the years, including during the Gaza war, American Jews have helped to secure essential diplomatic and military support for Israel in the United States and have raised much-needed funds for Israeli civil society and nonprofit organizations. The capacity of American Jews to provide such support in the future, however, is called into question by a range of developments, including a weakening of American Jewish communal institutions, growing divisions over Israeli policies, and rising antisemitism and hostility toward Israel in the broader American society. This policy memorandum describes the changes afoot in the American Jewish community and recommends policies that Israel should adopt to help strengthen American Jewry, rebuild its broad support for Israel, and solidify the partnership between the Jewish state and the world’s largest diaspora community.

Why and how Cairo worked to achieve and maintain the U.S.-Iran ceasefire — and what conclusions should be drawn in Israel?